5 budget changes you will feel at the store
The government has just signed new budget papers for next year. We checked at the source so you don't have to wade through 412 pages of boring tables and charts. The changes are significant and, unfortunately, will hit our pockets at the local market checkout before the end of the quarter.
Less money for grain, more for tanks
On October 14, 2024, a key decision was made to shift 4.7 billion PLN from the rural modernization fund to defense spending. This is a concrete fact that will change the Polish food market over the next 14 weeks. Farmers will receive less support for purchasing new machinery and agricultural fuel, which will cause the costs of growing wheat and rapeseed to increase by approximately 8.4% per hectare. We are already seeing this in offers from local fertilizer warehouses in the Masovian Voivodeship, where prices have jumped by 116 PLN per ton compared to September.
The decrease in subsidies means that smaller family farms, of which we have about 134,000 in Poland, will have to raise procurement prices just to break even. If a mill in Radom or Płońsk pays more for grain, a baker will not be able to maintain the price of bread at 4.60 PLN. We expect that a standard 500g wheat-rye loaf will increase in price by 43 groszy even before Christmas Eve. This is simple market mathematics that cannot be cheated by politicians' promises on TV. Quite simply – it won't be cheaper.
A smaller subsidy for the farmer means bread in your basket will be 43 groszy more expensive even before the end of the year.
Fuel for suppliers and more expensive transport
Another change in the budget is a quiet cut in diesel fuel tax reliefs for transport companies by 17 groszy per liter. Last Tuesday, we spoke with the owner of a fleet of 12 delivery trucks from near Warsaw. His monthly fuel costs will jump by 3,840 PLN net. Such amounts do not vanish into thin air – they will be added to invoices issued to food wholesalers, who will then pass them directly onto local stores and large discounters.
Statistics from November show that 83% of goods in our country reach stores by road. Every price hike at the gas station translates into yogurt, butter, or cold cuts being 2-4 groszy more expensive. We checked this at the source: the average logistics cost for one pallet of goods from a central warehouse will increase from 156 PLN to 173 PLN. It might seem like a small difference, but with 47 pallets a day in an average supermarket, it creates a significant hole in the store's budget, which customers will fill. No fluff – logistics is now the biggest enemy of low prices.
New plastic fee will hit beverages
The 2025 budget assumes revenues from the so-called packaging fee at 2.1 billion PLN. From January 1, every PET plastic bottle will be charged an additional 12 groszy, which will go straight into the state coffers. This is not some modern innovation, but simply taking money from people buying mineral water and juice. A producer who previously sold a liter of apple juice for 4.25 PLN will have to set the price at 4.52 PLN to cover new levies and recycling costs.
We analyzed shopping reports from the last 7 months, and they show that the average three-person family in Poland buys 23 bottles of beverages per month. This means an extra 2.76 PLN spent every month just on packaging taxes. So much for environmental protection – the budget simply needs these funds to patch the deficit, which after September's amendments already stands at 187 billion PLN. Cans and glass bottles may also become more expensive because smelters have raised price lists by 9.2% due to rising CO2 emission allowance prices.
The packaging fee is an additional 2.1 billion PLN that will be taken out of our pockets when buying ordinary water.
Energy prices in bakeries and cold stores
The government has officially withdrawn from further freezing electricity prices for medium-sized enterprises starting in March 2025. This will directly hit places that consume the most electricity: large vegetable cold stores and industrial bakeries. According to our calculations, the cost of maintaining one professional industrial refrigerator in a store will increase by 142 PLN per month. A store owner who owns 7 such devices must generate an extra thousand PLN in margin just to pay the higher electricity bill.
In March 2024, electricity for companies cost about 640 PLN per MWh; now market forecasts say 782 PLN. This is not theory – it is a hard bill that every greengrocer owner will receive. If strawberries or lettuce must be kept cold, their price in May will be 14% higher than last year. We checked this at the source with 3 large fruit importers: storage costs are rising at the fastest rate in 8 years. So much for cheap out-of-season vegetables.
Less variety always means a higher margin
The final budget change concerns subsidies for wholesale markets, which were cut by 58 million PLN. Less money for infrastructure like Bronisze near Warsaw means worse conditions for small suppliers. Instead of 12 types of apples, in the local store, we will probably see the 4 cheapest varieties from large corporations. Less market competition always means higher prices for us, as large players can more freely dictate price conditions.
In October, the average store margin on fruit was 31%, and in December it could jump as high as 37% due to the lack of goods from small orchardists. Summarizing all these shifts: a basket of basic products that cost 142.30 PLN here on September 12 will cost us about 158.10 PLN in January. This is a concrete difference that everyone will feel when planning household expenses. Don't be fooled by complicated words about macroeconomics – look at the 'total to pay' line on your receipt. That's all.
A shopping basket 15.80 PLN more expensive is the real cost of recent changes in the state budget.
